France Bonds

U.S. Treasuri

2026-10-07 12:46:42

U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Rises to 5.72%, Highest Since 2002

U.S. Treasuries resumed their decline on Wednesday, pushing the 30-year Treasury yield to 5.72%, its highest level since 2002. The move came as rising oil prices added to market concerns over inflation and possible Federal Reserve rate hikes. In Europe, the U.K. 30-year government bond yield climbed to 6%, while France’s yield on the same maturity rose by 14 basis points. A strategist at Mizuho International said the market was being affected by higher oil prices. The report, cited by ChainCatcher, points to a broader rise in long-dated sovereign yields across major markets as investors reassess inflation risks.

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Bitcoin

2026-10-01 11:59:17

French bond stress deepens as euro slides and Fed hike bets fade

Stress in French sovereign debt markets intensified Thursday, with France’s 10-year government bond yield rising another 8 basis points while the German 10-year Bund yield fell 6 basis points. That move pushed the spread between French and German 10-year debt to 135 basis points, well above the roughly 50-80 basis point range seen over the past few years. Credit default swap spreads on French bonds also climbed to a 13-year high. The pressure spilled into foreign exchange markets. The euro fell another 0.9% against the U.S. dollar to $1.1231, its weakest level in about five months. ZeroHedge framed the move as a sign that something may be breaking in Europe after a period of monetary tightening. In the U.S., traders kept backing away from expectations for another near-term Federal Reserve rate increase. The 2-year Treasury yield dropped 7.5 basis points to 4.81% on Thursday, while the odds of a Fed move in October fell to 33.8%, down from about 70% earlier this week. The update came as bitcoin held near $84,000 ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, according to CoinDesk’s live coverage headline.

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Arthur Hayes

2026-09-03 08:58:11

Arthur Hayes Says a EURJPY Drop Could Signal Fed Balance-Sheet Expansion and a Major Crypto Beta Trade

Arthur Hayes argues that the euro-yen exchange rate, rather than a standard U.S. rates indicator, is now the key macro signal for crypto investors. In his latest essay, Hayes says EURJPY could fall from around 185 to 140 or lower by next June, a move he links to stress in France’s sovereign debt and banking system, capital repatriation from Japan, and a policy chain that could force the Federal Reserve to inject more dollar liquidity. His thesis starts with U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent’s effort to push allied currencies higher against the dollar. Hayes says that trade objective requires private capital to follow official actions, with markets effectively being steered toward selling euros and buying yen. He then ties France’s worsening fiscal position, its negative Target2 shift since 2021, rising OAT yields, and foreign ownership of French bank debt to a broader euro-area fracture scenario he calls a “Schrodinger’s euro.” Hayes also argues that weakness in major French banks such as BNP Paribas could hit the U.S. repo market. Citing OFR money-market data, he says BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole, and Societe Generale account for roughly 20% of repo lending. If those banks pull back, he expects the New York Fed to expand its Reserve Management Purchases program. For crypto, Hayes says that would be a bullish liquidity event, keeping Bitcoin as his core long while maintaining 2026 speculative targets in Ether, Ethena, and Ether.fi.

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